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NASS tracks market price movements after reports

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the annual Price Reactions following USDA Crop Reports report on March 9, showing commodity price reactions following the Crop Production reports. This publication also includes price changes after release of the NASS Grain Stocks reports.

Since the mid-1980s NASS has tracked market price movement for corn, soybeans, and wheat, and since the late 1980s for upland cotton. The commodity price changes shown below are calculated based on commodity prices one day after report release.

“There are several factors that affect average prices, including crop production, grains in storage, and domestic and world supply,” said Tennessee State Statistician Debra Kenerson. “NASS tracks what happens with the market the day after the release of its Crop Production reports for selected crops. Below are the averages of how these prices changed the day after the Crop Production report release from 1985 through 2017, inclusive, and for upland cotton, 1989 through 2017, inclusive.”

Corn Prices Day after Crop Production Reports, 1985-2017
Price increased: 68 times
Average increase: 7.8 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 78 times
Average decrease: 7.3 cents/bushel
No price change: 18 times

Soybean Prices Day after Crop Production Reports, 1985-2017
Price increased: 79 times
Average increase: 15.4 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 81 times
Average decrease: 16 cents/bushel
No price change: 4 times

Wheat Prices Day after Crop Production Reports, 1987-2017
Price increased: 74 times
Average increase: 7.9 cents/bushel
Price decreased: 84 times
Average decrease: 7.5 cents/bushel
No price change: 10 times

Upland Cotton Prices Day after Crop Production reports, 1989-2017
Price increase: 80 times
Average increase: 95.5 points per pound
Price decrease: 93 times
Average decrease: 93.4 points per pound
No price change: 0 times

“It’s not uncommon to hear that NASS crop reports always negatively impact prices when, in fact, these data show that the number of times price increased or decreased are nearly the same,” Kenerson continued. “Sometimes the release of these reports has no effect on prices.”
To view the full report, visit http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/PRCropReport/PRCropReport-03-09-2018.pdf. For more information about Tennessee surveys and reports, call the NASS Tennessee Field Office at (615) 891-0903 or (800) 626-0987, or visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/TN/.

NASS provides accurate, timely, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture. We invite you to provide occasional feedback on our products and services. Sign up at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/subscriptions and look for “NASS Data User Community.”

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