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Higher deaths among veterans in 2020, but less than general population

By Tamas Mondovics

“More U.S. veterans died in 2020 than in prior years, but the increase was less than the increase in the general population,” stated a recent press release in connection with a new study of Veterans Health Administration (VA) data by researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) and Boston University (BU).
According to the release, overall, the study, which was published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, estimated that deaths among U.S. veterans using the VA increased 16 percent in 2020 while the increase among the general population increased 23 percent.
The data suggested that despite a higher number of comorbidities among veterans known to increase risk of adverse outcomes due to COVID-19 — like age, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity — the VA system performed better at preventing deaths related to the pandemic.
“This suggests the Veterans Health Administration
performed better than expected,” said Kevin Griffith, Ph.D., assistant professor
in the Department of
Health Policy at VUMC who studies the VA. “Despite VHA-enrolled veterans
having a higher prevalence of risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness, their rate of excess deaths was markedly lower than what was observed in the general population.”
The study also looked at the demographics and health of 11.4 million veterans at
the county level between 2016 and 2019. It then
developed several analytical models to predict mortality rates from March to December 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic swept over the country and globe, inundating hospitals and
critical care units with patients.
“We know that when hospitals and ICUs are full, both sicker and healthier patients die at higher rates for many diseases, not just COVID,” Griffith said, noting that veterans tend to have more comorbidities that make them high risk for severe COVID-19 illness.
Geographically, the study found that veterans living in states across the Great Plains faced a higher risk of mortality in 2020, where cases of COVID-19 were also higher per 1,000 population.
In total, the study estimates that 426,069 veterans died in 2020, which was 51,436 more than what the models predicted absent a global pandemic.
Yevgeniy Feyman, a doctoral candidate at BU and co-author on the study, noted that while there’s no precise explanation for why the VA had a smaller increase in deaths compared to the general population, the VA deployed useful tools early
on as the pandemic impacted the nation’s health care system.
The above study was funded by grants from the Department of Veterans Affairs Quality Enhancement Research Initiative and the Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality and had no role in the study.
None of the study’s authors nor the study reflect the position or policy of the Department of Veterans Affairs.